This image tracks the bullet/cannon shell holes on Allied plans that encountered German anti-aircraft fire and German fighters in World War II.

survival survivorship bias abraham wald

At first, the military wanted to reinforce tosses areas hit, because obviously that’s where the ground crew observed most damage on returning planes. This was until Hungarian born Abraham Wald pointed out that this was damage to the planes that had managed to get back to home.

Wald went on to say that the Allies should armour the areas where there are no dots at all, because those are the places where the planes won’t survive when hit.

This phenomenon is called survival/survivorship bias, a logical error where people focus on things that when you should really be looking at the those that didn’t.

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There are 4 main reasons commonly attributed to this:

  • Lack of preparation
  • Poor financial reports
  • Owner reliance
  • Unrealistic price expectations

I guess there’s no great surprise there? Being part of the 80% is not compulsory, there are things you can do. Being part of the 20% needs planning and sometimes some help. Read the article here.

It’s funny how you get introduced to people sometimes. Richard Martin and I met in the street, we were introduced by a mutual friend. It turns out that Richard is a bit of a wizard when it comes to web design and search engine optimisation.

Richard Martin, Digital Marketing

We are now working on a project together and it is a pleasure dealing with him. If you need web design in Reading, give a call.

There is no point in asking for feedback if you don’t do it consistently.

I use 1&1 for hosting and domains. Every time I ask for help/support I receive an email asking for feedback.

But, last week I had a problem and it took multiple contacts with them (chat, phone, email) to get it fixed 24 hours later (it was a problem at their end). I was less than happy. Subsequently, no feedback request has been received.

Surely, this invalidates all their feedback analysis if they don’t ask the opinion of dissatisfied customers as well?

Harry Hart - The Kingsman

The Rules of a ‘Kingsman’ Gentleman. My homework: increase my score from 65%

Rule 1
A gentleman never tells about his conquests, private matters or dealing. His business is nobody else’s.

Rule 2
A gentleman does not clash in public with his enemies or exes, or worse, with out-of-fashion contrasts, style or colours.

Rule 3
A gentleman is always happy to serve, whether it is opening a door or picking up the bill. Ask him for help and he cannot refuse.

Rule 4
A gentleman never reacts to rudeness. He pretends he does not recognise it and moves on like it never happened because it should never happen.

Rule 5
A gentleman is always ready with witty comments and remarks, interesting facts and conversation starters that bring the best out of everyone.

Rule 6
A gentleman asks non-invasive questions to keep a conversation going and attention focused on others. He makes them feel like the most interesting person he’s ever met, whether that is true or not.

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“When should we tell people about our event?” Oddly, that’s a question I’ve heard three times in the last week.

There’s no absolute right answer. Events, audiences and organisations will all vary. That said, telling a membership group about an event 14 days beforehand is probably too late. People are busy, they have family, social and business events all vying for diary space; often it’s the first in the diary that wins.

That means that 6 weeks, as a rule of thumb, should be the latest you send out the first notice of your event.

Here is a general timetable that you might want to work to.

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The CEO of Mercedes has just retired. BMW hired an actor who looked like him and made this advert.

This is a really good piece of opportunistic marketing by BMW.

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